000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUN 2 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N100W TO 11N106W TO 12N116W THEN 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ FROM 12N116W TO 09N124W TO 09N138W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 106W...AND WITHIN 75 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION... 

MODERATE WAVE/TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTS N OF 20N W OF 110W...WITH 
A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 140W AND WEAK TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN U.S.  
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST 
ARE DIGGING SE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER S CALIFORNIA. 
TROUGHING OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE 
RIDGE AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO WEAKEN THEN REDEVELOP 
FARTHER NORTH THROUGH MON. NET EFFECT WILL BE DIMINISHED TRADE 
WINDS MON THROUGH TUE WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. 

CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE FOUND ALONG THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE BOUNDARY W OF 100W. MORE ACTIVE PORTION W OF 120W ENHANCED 
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE E OF THE AREA AND AN 
UPPER LOW NEAR 07N127W. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ELSEWHERE 
WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 
110W...CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY DISPLACED 
WELL TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. DEEP 
TROUGHING ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS INTERACTING WITH A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF MEXICO. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW PRES WILL REDEVELOP THERE BY 
MON WITH MINOR IMPACT ON MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WED.

A SURGE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL 
SWEEP ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 11OW MON THROUGH TUE. WAVE MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL EVENT WILL COVER MUCH 
OF THE AREA S OF 15N AND W OF 90W BY EARLY WED...AND MAY PRODUCE 
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND 
COASTLINES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL