000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021020
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SUN JUN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N102W TO 12N115W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
11N120W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 07N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS N OF 20N W OF 
110W...WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE ALONG 140W AND WEAK TROUGHING 
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN 
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
COAST ARE DIGGING SE TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE DOES NOT APPRECIABLY BUILD HOWEVER...AS 
TROUGHING OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC ERODES THE RIDGE. THIS WILL 
ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO WEAKEN AND REORGANIZE FARTHER NORTH 
THROUGH MON. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE DIMINISHING WINDS MON INTO 
TUE WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. 

FARTHER SOUTH...A 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 07N138W 
ALONG THE ITCZ IS SLOWLY DRIFTING W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
CONVECTION IS MODEST...BUT THE OSCAT DATA INDICATED FRESH NE 
WINDS N OF THE CENTER. FARTHER EAST...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
115W...AIDED IN PART BY UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE E OF THE AREA AND A COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR 07N127W. 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED ELSEWHERE WHICH IS 
INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 
110W...CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY DISPLACED 
WELL TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. DEEP 
TROUGHING ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS INTERACTING WITH A 
BROAD LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF MEXICO. THIS IN 
THE AREA WHERE A PERSISTENT LOW PRES HAD BEEN CENTERED OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING 
A WEAK LOW PRES WILL REDEVELOP THERE BY MON...ALTHOUGH HAVE 
LIMITED IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 120W...THE 2330 UTC JASON 
ALTIMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF SEAS TO 9 FT. PER 
GLOBAL WAVE MODELS THIS THE ADVENT OF A SURGE OF LONG PERIOD SW 
SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR W OF 11OW BY LATE MON. LOOKING AHEAD...MODEL CONSENSUS 
SHOWS THIS SWELL WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 15N AND W OF 
90W BY LATE TUE. SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE COAST 
FROM COLOMBIA TO BAJA BY LATE WED...ENVELOPING MOST THE WATERS E 
OF 130W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG AND DANGEROUS 
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE BY MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG EXPOSED 
REEFS AND COASTLINES. 
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN