000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SUN JUN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA WWD ACROSS PANAMA AND  
COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA WHERE IT BECOMES ILL DEFINED...THEN 
BEGINS AGAIN NEAR 16N100W TO 09N108W TO 12N116W TO 
10N120W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 10N133W. 
A 1008 MB LOW IS FURTHER W AT 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 7N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 
119W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG N WINDS PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN A 
1032 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 36N140W AND A STALLED FRONTAL TROUGH 
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWED N 
WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... 
LOCATED N OF 24N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 136W. 8-11 FT SWELL 
CONTINUE SW TO 16N140W.  LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST 
TO WEAKEN TUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE SUPPORTING MID/UPPER TROUGH 
SHARPENS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 19N140W...ALLOWING SURFACE 
WINDS TO DIMINISH. FARTHER SOUTH OUTSIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND ITCZ THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE... 
INHIBITING ANY MAJOR CONVECTION.

SOUTH OF 22N AND E OF 120W...MONSOONAL FLOW IS WELL 
ESTABLISHED...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE FAR W 
AND SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT 
TO MODERATE SWLY WINDS OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE 
AIDING IN PRODUCING BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF WINDS ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA...LEADING TO VERY ACTIVE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THIS VERY WET AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL 
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR SE MEXICO 
INTO MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG POSSIBLE 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS AND COASTAL ZONES.  
 
E OF 110W...SEAS ARE BEING DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE SW SWELL THAT WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 
VERY STRONG AND LARGE SW SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE 
REGIONAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
COLOMBIA...BEGINNING MONDAY TO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS VERY 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PACIFIC 
MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS. SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 21 TO 
24 SECONDS WILL INITIALLY ARRIVE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND 
BUILD IN HEIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PRODUCE 
VERY STRONG AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE NEXT WEEK 
ALONG EXPOSED REEFS AND COASTLINES. 
 
$$ 
FORMOSA