000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010817
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SAT JUN 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO GUATEMALA...THEN IS 
DISCONTINUOUS STARTING AGAIN AT 11N108W TO 09N118W...CONVERTING 
TO ITCZ EXTENDING TO 05N140W.

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG NW WINDS PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING 1030 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 36N136W AND LOW 
PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA 
FROM THE PAST 10 HOURS INDICATED WINDS MAINLY AROUND 20 KT N OF 
27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT LIKELY IN N SWELL. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING 
ALONG 140W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS TROUGHING DEEPENS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 120W N 
OF 20N. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW NE WINDS TO INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO MON N OF 20N W OF 120W WITH BUILDING SEAS. 
LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE WEAKENS TUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE 
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
19N140W...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH. FARTHER SOUTH...THE 
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...INHIBITING ANY MAJOR CONVECTION.

A BROAD AREA OF SW FLOW COVERS THE WATERS MAINLY E OF 
105W...CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH DISPLACED WELL EAST 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INTERACTING 
WITH BROAD STATIONARY TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO...RELATED IN 
PART TO A NOW DISSIPATED CIRCULATION THAT HAD BEEN ACTIVE OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS NEAR 10N110W. 

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SW SWELLS TO 6 FT WILL DOMINATE 
THE EQUATORIAL WATERS E OF 120W THROUGH MON. LARGE LONG PERIOD 
SW SWELL WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EQUATOR MON THROUGH WED.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN