000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC THU MAY 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

BARBARA MOVED ONSHORE AT 29/1950 UTC...YESTERDAY...IN THE
AFTERNOON. BARBARA HAS BEEN WEAKENING COMPARATIVELY AND
IT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO DURING ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS LAND...AND EVEN BEFORE IT
MADE LANDFALL. ARRIAGA IN THE STATE OF CHIAPAS HAS REPORTED
A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 17 INCHES...ABOUT 432 MM...DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS OR SO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. EXPECT
MORE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.

AN AUTOMATIC STATION NEAR TONALA REPORTED MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KT...130 KM/H.

BARBARA WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 30/0900 UTC.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA AT 30/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 18.5N 95.0W...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
THE CENTER OF BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC...OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 09N84W TO 08N90W...AND THEN
IT RESUMES FROM 14N112W TO 08N120W 08N125W 06N130W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N130W BEYOND 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
78W AND 90W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N147W TO 24N150W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 23N140W TO 28N131W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 25N130W BEYOND 32N130W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 25N130W BEYOND 32N130W RIDGE...IS REACHING
THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AT LEAST TO THE NORTH OF 25N.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 13N126W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 120W AND 131W.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N112W. THIS FEATURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AWAY
FROM THE CENTER. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE SURFACE
MAP FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.
 
A LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS AT 14-16 SECONDS DOMINATE 
MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 115W. THESE SWELLS ARE MERGING 
WITH NW TO N SWELLS THAT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST 
WATERS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH 
CENTRAL WATERS LATER TODAY.
 
$$ 
MT