000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282236 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE MAY 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 14.2N 96.5W AT 28/2100Z OR ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MOVING NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC ...OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT N TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS PAND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATES OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 10N86W TO 12N91W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 16N100W TO 14N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N114W 1009 MB TO 07N127W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 06N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF PANAMA FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 75W AND 86W. CONVECTION IS AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SEE ABOVE. LASTLY... LOW PRES NEAR 10N114W 1009 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW U.S. SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO NEAR 30N110W THEN TRAILS SW AS A NARROW TROUGH AXIS TO 24N120W THEN WWD TO NEAR 25N132W. AN ELONGATED W TO E RIDGE PREVAILS S OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE W PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING S TO SE AND SQUASHING THE RIDGE BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE E OF 110W...E-SE ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...AND INTO COLOMBIA. FARTHER WEST...A SECOND LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10.5N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 120.5W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE TROUGH BREAKING TO THE EAST OF 110W AS THE SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. FRESH SW TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE TROUGH IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N141W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 15N112W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ...COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 130W. DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO...NW TO N WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF ABOUT 24 AND E OF 123W WITH SEAS THERE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. EXPECT THESE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THESE WATER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS AT 14-16 SECONDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 115W. THESE SWELLS ARE MERGING WITH NW TO N SWELLS THAT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELLS IS ALREADY IMPACTING THAT REGION. $$ FORMOSA