000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260242 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN MAY 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N90W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N107W 1009 MB TO 09N121W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N121W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N140W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE FAR PACIFIC NW SECTION OF THE U.S. SW THROUGH 32N135W TO A RECENTLY FORMED UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD NEAR 28N136W. TO ITS SE...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED AT 16N115W COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EXITED THE AREA TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE WRN MOST TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEWD TO ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION WITH A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA WITHIN THE AREA OF BROAD ANTICYCLONE FLOW MAINTAINING RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA AS NOTED BY THE FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS PRESENT TO THE N OF 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W...AND ALSO UNDERNEATH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TRANSLATED EWD TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY MON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SHEARING OFF TO SW OF THE AREA...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES. OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH ITS BROAD ENVELOP OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA TO THE N OF 10N AND E OF ABOUT 106W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC SHIELD. AT THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVELS WITHIN THIS SAME PORTION OF THE AREA... MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT ALOFT...HOWEVER POCKETS OF DRY AIR ARE IDENTIFIED AS WELL IN BETWEEN THE ACTIVITY...AND MAY HAVE LEAD TO THE RECENT DISSIPATION OF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DURING THE RECENT HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SWWD TO NEAR 05N WHERE IT ENCOUNTERS DRY ALOFT AND AS A RESULT DISSIPATES. AS DESCRIBED UNDER THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION...THERE ARE PRESENTLY TWO LOW PRES FEATURES IDENTIFIED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE FIRST AT 12N90W WITH A PRES OF 1010 MB ...AND THE SECOND ONE AT 10N107W WITH A PRES OF 1009 MB. THE LOW NEAR 10N107W HAS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF ITS CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS VIVIDLY DISPLAYING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE N AND NE OF THE FIRST LOW WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N87W TO 14N93W. THESE LOWS AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN NATURE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THERE LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR PROBABILITY CONDITIONS RELATING TO THESE LOW PRES FEATURES. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA AT 34N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 32N133W AND TO NEAR 21N116W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1742 UTC SAT AFTERNOON REVEALED NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 21N AND W OF 122W WITH SEAS THERE TO 9 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO N OF 23N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W BY MON AFTERNOON WITH SEAS THERE TO 9 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS AT 16-18 SECONDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 115W...WHILE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PORTION. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION ARE CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE...AND ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 8 FT SUN TO BEFORE A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS BEGINS TO ELEVATE SEAS THERE AGAIN TO POSSIBLY 10 FT BY LATE MON. $$ AGUIRRE