000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT MAY 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N88W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N97W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N106W 1009 MB. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N106W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES S TOWARD 14N110W. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS VENTING ONGOING CONVECTION. MOST OF THIS IS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT COASTAL IMPACTS HAVE GENERATED A WELL DEFINED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE STORNG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W. LOOKING AHEAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THREE LOW PRES AREAS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING TWIN TROPICAL CYCLONES EMERGING OUT OF THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH AND MIGRATING NW TO N. ITS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEBACK AS YET. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE CONVSERVATIVE ECMWF INDICATING A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH TWIN LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING NW TO N...BUT FAVORING THE EASTERNMOST CYCLONE AND KEEPING CONDITIONS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS AT 16-18 SECONDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 115W...WHILE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PORTION. THESE SWELL EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE LATER TODAY. $$ CHRISTENSEN