000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAY 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N104W MOVING W 09 KT. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF 09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW IS UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND OVER RATHER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THESE INGREDIENTS MAY ALLOW OR THE LOW TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL COAST RICA TO 12N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N104W 1010 MB TO 08N117W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 09N126W TO 10N132W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W-99W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W- 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-89W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 114W- 118W. A GENERALLY RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FIRST RIDGE IS E OF 108W...WITH THE TROUGH FROM 32N118W TO 15N113W. THE SECOND RIDGE IS BROAD IN NATURE...AND COVERS THE AREA W OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 12N127W. THESE RIDGES CONTINUE TO VENTILATE DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROF AND ITCZ DESCRIBED ABOVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND IS DIVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO END TONIGHT WHILE THE TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE TWO UPPER RIDGES AMPLIFY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH CENTER IS WELL N OF THE AREA AT 40N143W...WITH A RIDGE SEWD TO 27N128W TO NEAR 21N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 117W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WRN U.S. CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG NW-N WINDS JUST N OF THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE TO SEEP S INTO THE AREA TO THE N OF 29N AND BETWEEN 119W-123W WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WERE LOCATED ACROSS SW PORTIONS... PROPAGATING WWD AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ AT 133W. A MODEST REGION OF FRESH NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT CONTINUE N OF THIS WAVE AND ARE PRODUCING SEAS 8-9 FT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE W AND EXIT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT PASSES DIRECTLY S OF THE EPAC HIGH...WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20- 25 KT. E OF 110W...MODERATE MONSOONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICS AND IS PRODUCING CONVERGENCE OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INVOF THE MONSOON TROUGH. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN BY THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL INDUCE GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EPAC. LONG PERIOD CROSS HEMISPHERIC SW SWELL AT 17-19 SECONDS IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTS. EXPECTED SW SWELL AND ADDITIONAL PULSES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PRODUCING STRONG AND DANGEROUS SURF ACROSS THE $$ AGUIRRE