000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE MAY 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRES NEAR 10N79W TO 
08N91W TO 09N100W TO 09N110W TO 06N120W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 
10N129W TO 05N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N135W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 
94W...BETWEEN 100W AND 112W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 121W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N 
TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 
32N133W TO NEAR 20N113W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 
113W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL 
WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN N SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. A REINFORCING SURGE N OF 30N IS 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD S ACROSS WATERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-140W 
FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12 
FT.   

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 
10N129W. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A CONTINUAL 
WEAKENING OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WHERE A TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE 
IT DRIFTS SWWD. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 8 
FT BY THU AFTERNOON.  
 
$$
NR/JA