000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192129 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO 07N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 10N117W...THEN RESUMES FROM 09N123W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N E OF 80W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 94W... WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 100W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150-180 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 122W. LOW PRES...THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS NEAR 12.5N121W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N121W TO THE LOW TO 07N121W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N134W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 32N131W TO 15N106W. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE REDWOOD COAST OF CALIFORNIA S TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHICH ARE PROPAGATING INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. THESE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH TO 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W BY MON AFTERNOON ...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THAT POINT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WHICH ARE ALSO DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AROUND 10 KT. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 270 NM IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW ALONG WITH 9-11 FT SEAS... WHICH WERE MEASURED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NEARBY IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 123W WHERE SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL ARE PRESENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMAINING TROUGH CONTINUING WESTWARD...EXTENDING FROM 15N124W TO 11N125W TO 07N129W BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BOARD IN THIS AREA BY MON AFTERNOON...WHILE LINGERING SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL LINGER W OF THE TROUGH THROUGH 48 HOURS. ALOFT...A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WIDE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 04N TO 12N W OF 120W...THEN CONTINUES TO THE NE JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THIS PLUME...EXCEPT W OF 132W WHERE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF HAWAII IS ADVECTING INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION CONTINUES TO FAN OUT WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO 110W AROUND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. $$ LEWITSKY