000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190222
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SUN MAY 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 1007 MB REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE CENTERED NEAR 12N118W...MOVING 
W AT 10 KT. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 90 AND 300 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF 
THE LOW. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 20-
30 KT WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS AROUND THE LOW. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT 
CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 09N88W TO 07N103W 
TO 09N106W...THEN RESUMES FROM 1007 MB LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF 
ALVIN...NEAR 12N118W TO 09N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 123W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...  
                                             
1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 36N135W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 20N110W. MAINLY MODERATE N 
THROUGH E WINDS ARE FOUND UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N 
OF 17N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND 
TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN...INCREASING 
WINDS W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM 20-25 KT TO GALE FORCE N OF 
24N BY SUN AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE AND SEND A NW 
SWELL S TO 29N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W BY SUN AFTERNOON... 
SHIFTING TO BETWEEN 120W AND 128W BY MON EVENING.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE W CENTRAL 
WATERS AND 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SW 
SWELL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 13N128W TO 
06N140W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY SUN MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IS MAINTAINING 8-9 FT SEAS 
IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N100W TO 04N110W TO 
04N120W TO 00N127W. THE COVERAGE AND HEIGHT OF THESE SEAS WILL 
NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE E PACIFIC 
GULF AREAS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.

$$
LEWITSKY