000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED MAY 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 08N103W 
AS OF 15/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 650 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO 
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE DEPRESSION MAINLY WITHIN 150 
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS INCREASING NW OF THE THE DEPRESSION FROM 
09N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE 
...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. THE 
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC 
CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR IT TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL 
TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY 
INTENSIFY THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. IT FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 10N110W BY EARLY FRI AS 
A MINIMAL HURRICANE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
06N78W 1008 MB TO 08N87W TO 06N94W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E 
TO 9N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N120W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. 
 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 
83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...AND ALSO N OF 
THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 09136W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE 
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S OF ABOUT 19N WHERE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC IS STREAMING EWD ACROSS 
THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF ABOUT 18N AND W OF 
115W. ELSEWHERE A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE 
EARLIER OBSERVED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT JUST INLAND THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS RELAXING AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E 
MOVES FURTHER TO THE W...AND FROM THE ERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. 
THE N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SHORTLY. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO PULSE LATER TODAY...THEN 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS A FEW HRS AFTER DAYBREAK ON THU WITH
SEAS THERE LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
N-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND S TO 
NEAR 05N WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY THU... 
THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU EVENING AS LOW PRES IN 
JUST S OF THE GULF LIFTS N AND INLAND NRN PANAMA.

A FEW OF THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DEPICT LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
PROPAGATING S INTO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE BASIN TONIGHT...
AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THU...BUT WITH THE AFFECTED AREA 
SHRINKING IN SIZE. BY EARLY FRI MORNING...THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE