000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC WED MAY 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
IS CENTERED NEAR 08N103W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 
1005 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
INTO A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GFS MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY 
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT. 
THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF THE LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 07N92W TO 
THE LOW PRES NEAR 08N103W TO 08N113W TO 07N123W THEN TRANSITIONS 
TO AN ITCZ AXIS W OF 07N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 
81W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE 
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W 
OF 110W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT 
COVER THIS AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS 
HIGH PRES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND LOW NEAR 
08N103W MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
PULSE TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU. 
RESIDUAL SWELL TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH.
 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS N-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA THIS MORNING N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS LOW PRES 
OVER INTERIOR COLOMBIA DEEPENS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

N-NW SWELL TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL SWEEP S OF 30N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W TONIGHT... 
AND PERSIST THROUGH THU EVENING.

$$
MUNDELL