000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE MAY 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 8N83W TO LOW PRES 7N98W 1008 MB TO 10N115W TO 
8N125W. ITCZ 8N125W TO 7N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 04N-8N BETWEEN 77W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
CONVECTION STRONG FROM 05N-15N BETWEEN 96W-107W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 32N119W TO 22N122W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 22N
W OF 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 30N110W TO 25N115W.
A 75-95 KT JETSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENISULA
ACROSS NORTHEN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFULENT FLOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N98W.

LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 7N98W HAS STRENGTHENED.
ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS S AND W OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS WITHIN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED GROWTH. AS THE LOW MOVES W
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 105W AND 110W WITHIN THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS
THEN 20 KT WED.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

$$
DGS