000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC MON MAY 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
9000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 
07N94W 1010 MB TO 10N108W TO 09N116W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
ITCZ EXTENDING BEYOND 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW EXCEPT 180 NM NW QUADRANT.

...DISCUSSION... 

A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF AREA SE TO 
NEAR 19N108W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN 
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE 
TO 18N W OF 120W...AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 132W 
BASED ON RECENT ALTIMETER PASS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE DYING 
FRONT WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT W OF 130W THROUGH MON NIGHT.

LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SAT HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS 
SHOW A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF CARIBBEAN WAVE/TROUGH 
FEATURE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 07N94W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ALONG WITH 
THE WAVE/TROUGH FEATURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PAC THROUGH MID 
WEEK AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL REACH 25 KT EACH MORNING WITH SEAS APPROACHING 8 
FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. AS THE WAVE/TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...A 
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
WILL INDUCE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
REACH 25-30 KT LATER TODAY. 
 
$$
MUNDELL