000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN MAY 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 9N100W. ITCZ 9N107W TO 8N125W TO
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 89-93W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 106W-121W.

...DISCUSSION... 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N126W
TO 20N131W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 110W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 24N124W. A 75-80 KT JETSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA PENISULA ACROSS NORTHEN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFULENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
111W-121W.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TROUGH LATER TODAY AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NE.

A WEAK LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE W COAST 
OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N88W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS
THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. ONCE THE TROUGH AND
LOW PRES MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE W  IT WILL INDUCE WINDS TO 30
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON.
 
$$
DGS