000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC FRI MAY 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N95W THEN TRANSITIONS 
TO A ITCZ TO 11N108W TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N 
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N129W WITH SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W AND SW TO 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAILS OVER 
MOST OF THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W. FRESH NW TO N WINDS TO 20 
KT ARE NOTED JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE THERE 
IS A LOCALLY TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES IN 
MEXICO. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... 
AND FRESHEN TRADES N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT.
 
LOOKING AHEAD...VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INTERESTING 
SCENARIO TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. A CARIBBEAN WAVE/TROUGH NEAR THE 
PANAMA CANAL IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH GAP WIND FEATURES OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IT MOVES WEST ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE FAR E PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND. GAP WINDS 
THROUGH FUNNELING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INTERACT WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE INDUCED MON AND TUE BY THE WAVE/TROUGH AS 
IT SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND FURTHER INCREASE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH TUE AND WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR GROWTH 
OF THE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 95W-100W. THIS 
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO MAY SPIN UP A LOW...WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS 
A POSSIBILITY. THIS EVOLUTION DEPICTED...TO VARYING DEGREES...IS 
A FEATURE IN THE LATEST GFS...ERCMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
  
$$
MUNDELL