000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 
06N77W TO OVER/ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AND SE COSTA 
RICA TO 09N84W...THEN THROUGH EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTERS ANALYZED AT 08N89W AND 09N99W...TO 10N112W WHERE A 
NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N110W TO 07N113W.
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ JUST W OF
THIS EMBEDDED TROUGH...WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO
09N127W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N105W TO 09N123W AND
FROM 10N128W TO 07N138W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED AROUND THE EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WITHIN THE
AREA FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 103W.   

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 
OBSERVED IN/DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS 4 FT 
PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. THE NE SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE PASS TEHUANTEPEC EVENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING
WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED
SEAS TO 6 FT IN THE AREA FROM 00N TO 07N BETWEEN 98W AND 116W.
THESE NE SWELLS ARE GRADUALLY LOSING IDENTITY IN THE MORE
PREDOMINATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL COMPONENTS THAT WILL
MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS TO 6 FT ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS THROUGH 
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SAT. GUIDANCE IS
NOT INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT...
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH ENE DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT
DEVELOPING BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT INTO JUST AFTER SUNRISE 
EACH MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH AT LEAST 
SAT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO
10 KT ARE OBSERVED...WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. EXPECT N WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KT TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS ARE VARIABLE AT 5
TO 10 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 5 FT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE 
S OF 30N THROUGH SAT. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE AT 24N136W AND 25N120W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 14N98W. W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FT IN MIXING NW AND SSW LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. 
EXPECT THE NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT TO THE S
OF 27N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N ON WED...AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N...WITH SEAS
BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE THEN 
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. NE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 125W ON WED AND FURTHER
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON THU THROUGH SAT.
  
$$
NELSON