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AXPZ20 KNHC 062147
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WRKEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 
07N77W TO ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO 08N84W...THEN
WSW TO 07N89W...THEN NW TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER ANALYZED AT 09N99W...TO 08N105W TO 10N111W WHERE A 
NE TO SW ORIENTATED TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N108W TO
09N112W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ
JUST W OF THIS EMBEDDED TROUGH...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING W TO
09N130W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND 
JUST S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 09N98W TO 07N113W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N104W...AND DISSIPATING
ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N118W
TO 07N127W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 08N85W TO 06N94W...AND ALSO ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ
FROM 10N129W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 
OBSERVED IN/DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 
NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE RECENT EVENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
SW MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS TO 6 FT IN THE AREA FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 
96W AND 115W. THESE NE SWELLS ARE GRADUALLY LOSING IDENTITY 
IN THE MORE PREDOMINATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL 
COMPONENTS THAT WILL MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS TO 6 FT THROUGH
TUE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY...WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 
THE SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE SAT. GUIDANCE IS
NO LONGER INDICATING MUCH OF LATE DRAINAGE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT...
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH ENE DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT
DEVELOPING BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT INTO JUST AFTER SUNRISE 
EACH MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH AT SAT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO
10 KT ARE OBSERVED...WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. EXPECT N WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KT TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...CURRENTLY SURFACE WINDS ARE VARIABLE AT 5
TO 10 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 5 FT. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE 
S OF 30N THROUGH SAT. 

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED AT 23N130W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING E TO 20N110W. W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT IN MIXING
NW AND SSW LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. EXPECT THE NW 
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT TO THE S OF 27N ALONG
THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N ON WED NIGHT...AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N...WITH SEAS BUILDING
3 TO 5 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE THEN 
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. NE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 09N TO 19N W OF 125W ON WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.
  
$$
NELSON