000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 09N100W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 08N106W
TO 09N109W.  IT RESUMES FROM 09N112W TO 05N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90NM S OF AXIS
FROM 111W TO 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE MOVING E JUST N OF REGION EFFECTIVELY
FLATTENS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST PROMPTING WINDS ALOFT TO BECOME
ZONAL N OF 16N.  NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERS NORTHERN FRINGES OF
E PAC TUE NIGHT AND MOVE E OF AREA HARMLESSLY BY LATE WED NIGHT.
LONGWAVE CREST ENHANCES SURFACE RIDGE AND KEEP DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS THROUGH MOST OF BASIN TODAY...TUE AND BEYOND.  MODEL
GUIDANCE FOLLOWS TREND THROUGH ENTIRE WEEK ONLY POINTING AT LONG
PERIOD 10-12 FT SWELLS TO MOVE INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN WELL INTO 
THE WEEK. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...   
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES 1020 MB AT 26N139W HAS SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING E TO 17N110W.  RIDGE BLOCKS WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
DIGGING ANY FURTHER S THAN CURRENTLY POSITIONED.  HIGH PRES 
REACHES 1025 MB BEFORE GIVING SIGNS OF WEAKENING.  IT DOES LATE
IN THE WEEK AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND DEVELOPS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR NE CORNER OF BASIN

...OUTLOOK...  
WIND AND SEAS INCREASE LATTER IN THE WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NW BREEZE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND SEAS EACH 8 FT AS 
UPPER CYCLONE DEVELOPS. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES