000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060350 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAY 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 05N77W AND DISSECTS SW PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO 10N85W...THEN TURNS WSW THROUGH A 1010 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 09.5N95W...TO 08N106W TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N110W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ JUST W OF THE EMBEDDED TROUGH..WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING WSW THROUGH 08N128W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEAKENING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N78W TO 05N88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND AROUND THE EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N93W TO 06N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE INTENSE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N109W TO 08N129W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 06N137W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN/DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE RECENT EVENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 6 FT IN THE AREA FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. THE NE SWELLS WILL LOSE IDENTITY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 05N ON MON AND TUE IN THE MORE PREDOMINATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL COMPONENTS THAT WILL MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS TO 6 FT THROUGH LATE TUE. EXPECT LIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KT BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF EACH DAY WITH ENE DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT INTO JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. GULF OF PANAMA...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE OBSERVED WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S TO SW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N LATE TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS ALSO BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 5 FT EACH NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS...OR TROUGHS...WILL PASS ACROSS THESE NORTHERN WATERS ON TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT...THE EFFECTS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 30N THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING FROM 27N140W TO 17N106W WILL SHIFT FURTHER S AND EXTEND E TO W ALONG 24N ON MON THROUGH WED. THIS WILL ALLOW TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS...OR TROUGHS...TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 133W TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ON WED. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TONIGHT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AT 20 TO 25 KT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 9 FT IN THE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ACCOMPANIED BY COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT IN MIXING NW AND SSW LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MON. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT S LATE MON WINDS S OF 27N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N ON WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE PENINSULA BY THU. $$ NELSON