000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 05N77W TO 08.5N86W...THEN TURNS SW THROUGH A 1010 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 08.5N95W...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 07N103W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS TURNS NW TO 10N110W...THEN WIGGLES SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 06N89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED AROUND THE EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N93W TO 10N100W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N116W TO 06N120W...WITHIN 60 NM OF 08.5N123W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N131W TO 05N137W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN/DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE RECENT EVENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 6 FT IN THE AREA FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 104W. THE NE SWELLS WILL LOSE IDENTITY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 05N ON MON AND TUE IN THE MORE PREDOMINATE CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL COMPONENTS THAT WILL MAINTAIN COMBINED SEAS TO 6 FT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KT BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF EACH DAY WITH ENE DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT INTO JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. GULF OF PANAMA...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE OBSERVED WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S TO SW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N LATE TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 5 FT EACH NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS...OR TROUGHS...WILL PASS ACROSS THESE NORTHERN WATERS ON TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT...THE EFFECTS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 30N THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING FROM 27N140W TO 17N106W WILL SHIFT FURTHER S TO ALONG 24N ON MON...THEN LIE STATIONARY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL ALLOW TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS...OR TROUGHS...TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 133W TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED. TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AT 20 TO 25 KT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 9 FT IN THE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ACCOMPANIED BY COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT IN MIXING NW AND SSW LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MON. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT LATE MON WINDS S OF 27N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N ON WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT ALONG THE ENTIRE PENINSULA BY THU. $$ NELSON