000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTEND FROM 12N87W TO 08N97W TO 10N102W TO 
09N110W THEN ITCZ TO 08N128W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 
114W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 90 NM S OF
AXIS FROM 121W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OPENING UP INTO OPEN TROUGH EXTEND FROM
32N128W TO 17N140W.  SWATH OF VERY DRY AIR MASS 10 DEGREES
WIDE RUNS FROM 21N140W TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDES 90 KT JETSTREAM JUST SE OF
DRY AIR SWATH UNTO SOUTHERN TIP OF PENINSULA.  BROAD RIDGE
ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONE AT 10N117W PROMOTES MODERATE 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 121W TO
126W.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER AT 22N124W HAS BROAD RIDGE
DOMINATE BASIN WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE
NOTED OVER ENTIRE E PAC N OF ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.  ONLY 
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS LOW PRES CENTER 999 MB JUST OFF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
BARELY SCRATCHING 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.  ASSOCIATED
FRESH NW BREEZE AND SEAS TO 9 FT EXPECTED N OF 27N EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE MON.  

...OUTLOOK...
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REINFORCE HIGH PRES CENTER TO
1023 MB AND EXPAND RIDGE TO COVER MOST OF BASIN N OF ITCZ/
MONSOON TROUGH PAST MID WEEK.  NE TRADES MAY INCREASE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS EVEN STRONGER.  
   
$$
WALLY BARNES