000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050351 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN MAY 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT AND DISSECTS FROM SE TO NW BOTH PANAMA AND COSTA RICA REACHING THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN WIGGLES W TO 10N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN CONTINUES NW TO 11N106W THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 04.5N140W. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE TROPICS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N118W TO 06N135W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN SMALL CLUSTERS WITHIN 120 NM OF 05.5N84W AND 08N96W AND 07N107W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO ALONG 10N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT IN THE AREA FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. EXPECT LIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN AND MON...EXCEPT BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KT BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH MON. EXPECT ONLY 5 TO 10 KT LATE NIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ON TUE AND WED. THE AREA OF SUBSIDING NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW AND MIX WITH THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH RESULTANT SEAS MAXING AT 6 FT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S TO SW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 5 FT EACH NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE S OF 30N...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N ON WED AND THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF EACH DAY WITH ENE DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT INTO JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS WITH NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT IN MIXING NW AND SSW LON PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AND BECOME ORIENTATED E TO W ALONG ROUGHLY 25N ON MON ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 133W ON SUN AND MON...WITH EACH FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AT 15 TO 25 KT...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 8 FT IN THE NW SWELL THAT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL FRONT. THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 26N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUE THROUGH THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE AT 28N135W NOW HAS AMPLIFIED DOWN TO A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW AT 25N135W WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUE. CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE THAT IT BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE SW CONUS. $$ NELSON