000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND
SE PANAMA TO ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA TO THE
PACIFIC AT 09.5N85W TO 09N98W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN CONTINUES NE TO AN
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 11N107W...THE WIGGLES SW TO BEYOND 05N140W.
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ONE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30
NM OF 08N109W BUT IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 05N83W TO 09N109W TO 07N129W.

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 20 KT IN
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO ALONG 10N BETWEEN
94W AND 100W...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX
WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT WITHIN THE SAME AREA. EXPECT LIGHT...MOSTLY
SW...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN AND MON...
EXCEPT BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KT BRIEFLY LATE SUN NIGHT
AND MON NIGHTS. EXPECT ONLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS FROM TUE THROUGH THU
EVENING. THE NE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7 FT THIS 
EVENING NIGHT. THE AREA OF SUBSIDING NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE SW AND MIX WITH THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL
WITH RESULTANT SEAS MAXING AT 6 FT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 05N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 115W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY S TO SW AT 10
TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER 
THE WATERS N OF 30N TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILDING TO 5 FT EACH NIGHT...WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 30N...BUT EXPENDING ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 30N ON WED AND THU.  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY WITH ENE DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT FORECAST
BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT INTO JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH 
MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH AT LEAST
THU NIGHT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS WITH NW WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY
COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT IN MIXING NW AND SSW CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AND BECOME ORIENTATED E TO W ALONG
25N ON MON ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS TO MOVE INTO 
THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 133W ON SUN AND MON...
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AT 15 TO 20 KT...
WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 8 FT. THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 26N ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
ON TUE THROUGH THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE AT 28N135W NOW HAS AMPLIFIED DOWN TO A
1017 MB SURFACE LOW AT 25N135W WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE
PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUE. CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES
NOT INDICATE THAT IT BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE SW CONUS. 
 
$$
NELSON