000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC AT 10N87W THEN TURNS 
SW TO 08N98W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION 
TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN WIGGLES SW THROUGH 06N120W AND
06N128W TO BEYOND 02N140W. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED
ALONG BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 08.5N103.5W
...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
08.5N84.5W TO 08N82W TO 11N105W TO 06N125W TO 04N133W...AND
DISSIPATING WITHIN 30 NM OF 12.5N133W.

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MINIMAL 30 TO 35 KT GALE WARNING IS 
IN EFFECT FOR A NARROW 60 NM WIDE STRIP FROM 16N94.5W TO 
13.5N95.5W...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 14 FT LATER TONIGHT.
THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE 
TONIGHT WITH THE MAXIMUM NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AT ONLY 30
KT AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE NNE WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE SAT WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY SAT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING AS FAR S AS 
09.5N96W...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO A MAX OF 9 FT.
EXPECT LIGHT...MOSTLY SW...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON SUN AND MON...EXCEPT BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KT 
BRIEFLY LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHTS....BUT ONLY 5 TO 10 KT 
IS EXPECTED ON TUE NIGHT. THE NE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TO 7 FT ON SUN EVENING NIGHT...WITH THE AREA OF NE SWELL
CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL
WITH RESULTANT SEAS MAXING AT 6 FT BY LATE MON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N...WHILE LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE S OF 27N. EXPECT LIGHT
S TO SW WINDS BY EARLY SAT...THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
LATE SAT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EVENING.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
MON THROUGH WED.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT
EVENING...THEN ENE DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT IS FORECAST
BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT INTO JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH 
MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH AT LEAST
WED MORNING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS WITH NW WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KT CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY
COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXING NW AND SSW CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE...WITH 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE SURFACE 
RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND BECOME ORIENTATED E TO W ALONG 25N EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS N OF 27N E OF 125W ON SUN AND MON...ACCOMPANIED BY A 
GRADUAL SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AT 15 TO 20 KT....WITH SEAS 
EXPECTED TO MAX AT ONLY 7 FT. THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUE
AND WED.   
 
$$
NELSON