000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI MAY 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NNW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 02N78W TO ACROSS PANAMA TO 09N82W...THEN TURNS W ACROSS COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC AT 08N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN WIGGLES SW THROUGH 09N106W AND 06N127W TO BEYOND 02N140W. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N97W TO 09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINES FROM 08N83W TO 09N89W TO 08N97W AND FROM 08N105W TO 07N117W TO 08N131W TO 12N134W...AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 03N133W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS SURGED THROUGH THE CHEVILA PASS AT 15 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT...LATE THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SMOKE FROM AGRICUTURE FIRES WHICH IS ALREADY OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS FAR S AS 13N. THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED EARLIER...AT 1800 UTC. THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE MAXIMUM NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AT ONLY 30 KT AT SUNRISE ON SAT. THE RESULTANT N-NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BRIEFLY TO 14 FT NEAR 14.5N95W LATE TONIGHT. THE NNE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE SAT WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SAT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING AS FAR S AS 09.5N96W...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SEAS ALREADY SUBSIDED TO A MAX OF 9 FT. EXPECT LIGHT...MOSTLY SW...WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN AND MON...EXCEPT BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KT BRIEFLY LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHTS....BUT ONLY 5 TO 10 KT ON TUE NIGHT. THE NE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7 FT ON SUN EVENING NIGHT...WITH THE AREA OF NE SWELL CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SW MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH RESULTANT SEAS AT 6 FT BY LATE MON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N...WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE S OF 27N. EXPECT LIGHT S TO SW WINDS EARLY SAT THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE SAT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MON THROUGH WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT EVENING...THEN ENE DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT IS FORECAST BRIEFLY LATE EACH NIGHT INTO JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REPEATING THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS WITH NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXING NW AND SSW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...WITH 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 25N EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 27N E OF 125W ON SUN AND MON...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 7 FT. THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUE AND WED. $$ NELSON