000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N88W TO 07N109W TO 08N113W TO 
08N115W THEN ITCZ AXIS BEYOND 04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS W OF 92W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 26N138W WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
TO 11N137W HELP BRING VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 10N W OF 134W.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CREST ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER 
ITS TOP UNTO BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TODAY WITH LITTLE ADVERSE
IMPACT AS AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE STABLE.  REGION BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES SHOW MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N FROM 118W TO 123W.  

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1038 MB WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND
SE TO 10N105W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA
W COAST TURNS STRONG INSIDE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT IS SHORT-
LIVED AS RIDGE IS DISPLACED NE BY INCOMING COLD FRONT NOW OVER
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  OTHERWISE...RIDGE MAINTAINS GENTLE TO 
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN WITH EXCEPTIONS LISTED BELOW.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...VIGOROUS LATE SEASON COLD FRONT OVER GULF
OF MEXICO FUNNELS STRONG WIND ACROSS ISTHMUS AND INTO GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING REACHING GALE FORCE TONIGHT.  GALES ARE
SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER E AND SE OVER GULF OF MEXICO
EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF SOURCE OF WINDS. GALE FORECAST TO EXPIRE
BY EARLY MORNING SAT.  SEAS BUILD TO 12 FT...BUT SUBSIDE JUST AS
QUICK AS WINDS DIMINISH.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE IN THIS 
SCENARIO EXCEPT ECMFM WHICH CURTAILS WINDS SHORT OF GALE.  UKMET
SEAS MAY HAVE TOO HIGH SEAS AT 15 FT CONSIDERING THE SHORT BURST
...LIMITED FETCH AND MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG NW WINDS CRUISE GULF WATERS N OF 26N
WITH SEAS BARELY REACHING 8 FT.  GRADIENT WEAKENS EARLY TODAY
EFFECTIVELY TURNING WINDS INTO A GENTLE NW BREEZE LATER TODAY.
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT OR LESS TONIGHT.

$$
WALLY BARNES