000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED MAY 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1422 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N93W TO 05N104W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N104W TO 03N120W TO 05N130W TO 03N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 
08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N 
TO 08N BETWEEN 126W AND 134W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SW UNITED STATES AND THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN NW WINDS 
UP TO 25 KT BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKEN. 
DURING THAT PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 FT. 

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE FROM 09N TO 17N W OF 135W. 
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEAS UP TO 8 FT UNTIL 
SUNSET TODAY. 

N SWELLS FROM GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST ARE SUPPORTING 8 TO 11 FT SEAS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 133W 
AND 120W. THIS GALE FORCE WARNING IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BY EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 8 
FT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH MID-TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S OF THE GULF 
OF PANAMA IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 135 NM OFF THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS AS 
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS. MID- TO LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN 
AXIS NEAR 140W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. 

$$
NR/JS