000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240251
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED APR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W TO 03N78W 
TO 05N87W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
08.5N107W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07.5N114W 1010 MB TO 06N120W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 114W...WHILE NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 
100W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALSO 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 134W.
         
...DISCUSSION... 

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC 
IS RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER-WISE. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO 
GALES...NO GAP WIND EVENTS AND NO ACTIVE COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE 
REGION. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
ON THE SHORT-TERM HORIZON. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT OVER THE ENTIRE 
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING. HOWEVER...A BROAD 
AREA OF N TO NE WINDS OCCURRING WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH WED TO GENERATE NE SWELL THAT 
WILL PROPAGATE INTO NE PORTIONS...RAISING SEAS TO 8-9 FT N OF 
29N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W BY WED MORNING AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY W 
THROUGH THU. 

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL N OF THE AREA...WITH A 1037 MB HIGH 
CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50N137W...AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BETWEEN 125W AND THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN AREA OF MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS IS NOTED 
PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS...PARTICULARLY FROM 06N TO 
16N W OF 130W.

A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 
07.5N114W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE 
IS OCCURRING TO THE N AND NE OF THE LOW...WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND 
DISSIPATE...WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG AND N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 90W.
                                             
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH 
A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 29N126W SHIFTING SLOWLY E. THE SURFACE 
REFLECTION OF THIS LOW AND RESULTANT TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER N WATERS...KEEPING WINDS THERE LIGHT. AN 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALL THE WAY NORTHWESTWARD 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS AIDING IN 
PROMOTING UPPER SPEED DIVERGENCE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS 
HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS. 

FIRES OCCURRING INLAND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO NW NICARAGUA 
ARE CREATING PATCHY SMOKE THAT IS MOVING W AND SW AND OVER THE 
ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS...AND RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES BELOW 5 
MILES ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEASONAL BURNING CONTINUES 
ACROSS THE REGION.

$$
STRIPLING