000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 08N83W TO 05N104W TO 07N116W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES
AT 06N120W TO 03N130W THEN ITCZ TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 112W.

...DISCUSSION... 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 29N139W EXTEND ALONG 139W TO
00N.  VERY DRY AIR MASS W OF AXIS INTRUDING INTO BASIN FOLLOWING
TROUGH AXIS.  JET CORE OF 80 KT JUST E OF TROUGH ADVECTS PLENTY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND NE OVER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CREST E OF
140W.  RIDGE WELL ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONE AT 12N111W IN POSITION
TO PROVIDE MODERATE TO STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW RIGHT ABOVE LOW 
PRES 1010 MB AT 06N120W.  ABUNDANT AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG ITCZ ENABLES SYSTEM TO PRODUCE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ
FROM 98W TO 112W.  

SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG 96W S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
KEEPS DRY AIR MASS E OF 99W.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 29N/30N E OF 130W USHERS BROAD
HEALTHY SURFACE HIGH PRES 1037 MB INTO REGION JUST N OF BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA N OF FRONT.  LONG PERIOD 8-12 FT N SWELL N OF 24N W OF
116W SPREADS S AND SUBSIDES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  DECAYED 10
FT SWELLS REACH 10N BY THU. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS INCREASE FRI AS HEALTHY HIGH PRES IS
PUSHED EASTWARD.  FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT. 

...OUTLOOK...
CURRENT NW SWELL DECAY TO 8 FT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT
SPREADS S.

WINDS WHICH INCREASED OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI MAY START 
DIMINISHING BY SAT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES EASTWARD.   

$$
WALLY BARNES