000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC MON APR 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N83W TO 07N87W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 07N87W TO 05105W TO 07120W TO 
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 
06N E OF 81W...FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W...FROM 08.5N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH 5-10 KT S OF 27N AND 10-20 KT N OF 27N.  
SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 5 FT N OF 30N...AND 1-3 FT 
ELSEWHERE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE INTO 
TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH 
WED MORNING. THESE N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WED 
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 
WED EVENING.
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEK. 
SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT BY WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED 
MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH WED. SEAS OF 4-6 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY 
WED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N135W TO 
15N105W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING N WINDS 
AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 131W... 
WITH LONG PERIOD S SWELL COMBINED WITH SHORTER PERIODS NW 
SWELLS. COMBINED SEAS ARE 8-11 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. THESE SEAS 
WILL SPREAD TO 24N THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NE WINDS CONTINUE 
AT 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS SW OF THE RIDGE. THE 
TRADES SW OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 
KT ON WED. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT SW OF THE RIDGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD TO 6-8 FT BY WED.

W TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KT...WITH SEAS FROM 3-6 FT IN PRIMARILY S 
SWELL ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE W COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT 
ACROSS THESE WATERS TUE NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 6-9 FT.

$$
NAR/JRL