000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG 08N FROM EASTERN PANAMA 
TO ACROSS SE COSTA RICA TO 09N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 06N94W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ 
WHICH WIGGLES WESTWARD THROUGH EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS AT 06N98W AND 06N114W. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN TURNS NW 
TO 08N123W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING OVER
THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 60 NM OF
02N79W...APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N100W
AND 07N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N90W TO 03N113W TO 09N114W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS TO THE S OF 29N WHILE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 29N
WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO 5 FT. LITTLE CHNAGE EXPECTED THROUGH 
THIS EVENING THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT IN THE WATERS N OF 29N AND LIGHT 5 TO 10 
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KT BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH WED MORNING. THESE N WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WED AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED EVENING...THEN 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON THU CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE AREAS OF LONG N TO S
FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
ON SAT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AS
THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT.
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI 
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHEVILIA PASS
ON FRI EVENING INITIALLY AT 15 TO 20 KT...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNRISE SAT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THROUGH THU MORNING. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX LATE IN 
THE WEEK WITH THE NIGHTLY DRAINAGE AT 10 TO 15 KT.   

GULF OF PANAMA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N135W TO 
12N102W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING N 
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W
AND 131W...WITH LONG PERIOD N SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS
OF 7 TO 10 IN N SWELL. NE WINDS CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE TROPICAL WATERS SW OF THE RIDGE. THE AFFECTED AREA NE OF 
THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD S TO ALONG 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W
TONIGHT AND TUE. THE N SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON WED AS
THE TRADES SW OF NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT ON THU AND FRI.  

W TO NW WINDS AT 10 KT...WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NW SWELL...ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE W COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINS ULA. THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT ACROSS THESE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS SEAS BUILD 
TO 5 TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE ENTIRE
BAJA PENINSULA ON WED BUT SEAS MAY MAX AT ONLY 6 FT ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
ON THU AND FRI AS THE WINDS CLOCK TO ALMOST DUE N AT 10 TO 15 
KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT. 

$$
NELSON