000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 
06N96W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N105W...THEN NW TO 07N120W...THEN 
SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION...ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...IS FLARING OVER 
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 01N TO 
08N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 07.5N82W... 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N90W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
04N97W TO 04N118W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF 09N110W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS TO THE S OF 29N WHILE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 29N.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
MIDDAY TUE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE EVENING
AND GRADUALLY CLOCK TO NNW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THESE
N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WED AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED EVENING...THEN 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON THU CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 FT IN THE AREAS OF LONG N TO S
FETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10 TO 15 KT LATE
EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT
IN ENE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 
SUNRISE ON WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING NE TO E WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KT AROUND SUNRISE ON THU AND FRI.  

GULF OF PANAMA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N134W TO 
19N107W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING N 
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 124W
AND 130W...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT IN N SWELL. NE TO
E WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS
SW OF THE RIDGE. A SECONDARY SURGE OF LONG PERIOD N SWELLS WILL
ARRIVE LATER TODAY DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 11 FT THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 130W.
THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE S REACHING ALONG 23N ON MON NIGHT.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL ARRIVE ALONG
31N ON TUE NIGHT AND WILL REACH ALONG 23N OF WED NIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. NW WINDS AT 10 KT...WITH SEAS TO 5 FT IN NW 
SWELL...ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE W COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT ACROSS THESE WATERS ON TUE AS SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE ENTIRE BAJA PENINSULA
ON WED. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU AND FRI AS THE WINDS CLOCK
TO ALMOST DUE N WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AGAIN. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO
9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED N AS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W
AND 110W...AND S OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W...WITH THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS INTERRUPTING THE S SWELL BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. EXPECT THESE
SWELLS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT
BY EARLY MON.

$$
NELSON