000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 
10N84W TO 05N93W TO 08N107W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 09N110W...
THEN WIGGLES SW TO BEYOND 02N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
03N78W TO 08N85W TO 04N92W 05.5N012W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 10N107W TO 06.5N115W...AND WITHIN 15 NM LINE 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N134W TO 07N140W.   

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS N OF 30N AROUND MIDDAY ON SUN WITH THESE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL CLOCK TO NNW 
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N ON TUE NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KT...WITH NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT SPREADING S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10 TO 15 KT LATE
EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH MON NIGHT.
INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ENE 20 TO
30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT SUNRISE TUE AND WED
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.  

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING BRIEFLY
TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE AT NIGHT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
WED. 

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N136W TO 
12N107W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING NW TO N 
WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 
131W...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXING N SWELLS. NE 
TO E WINDS ARE OBSERVED SW OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 
18N TO 27N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THE AREA 
OF WINDS BOTH TO THE NE AND SW OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD 
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 92W AND 105W TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N 
REACHING ALONG 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 113W ON SAT...EXCEPT FOR THE
WATERS PROTECTED BY THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL SUBSIDE WITH COMBINED SEAS MAXING AT 7 FT REACHING THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ON SUN. 

$$
NELSON