000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC WED APR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 06N85W TO 07N97W. 
ITCZ EXTENDS AXIS FROM 09N97W TO 07N108W TO 09N119W TO 07N130W 
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 05N88W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ AXIS
W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OVER COLORADO WITH A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 28N114W. THE TROUGH MARKS 
A REGION WHERE STRONG POLAR JET MERGES WITH SUBTROPICAL JET. THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH 
THU NIGHT. A MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD IS ALONG 15N114W 
13N110W 08N105W. DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N108W 11N113W TO 
11N116W.

STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1033 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N136W 
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS W OF ABOUT 112W. 
PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO RELAX 
AS A SURFACE LOW IN E MEXICO SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD. AN ASCAT 
PASS FROM JUST AFTER 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTED FRESH TO 
STRONG NE TRADES S OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM ABOUT 14N TO 29N 
W OF 128W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N119W TO 
07N121W MOVING W ABOUT 17 KT...AND IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE 
NEAR EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL WEAKEN IN THE NORTHERN 
HEMISPHERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE ITCZ AXIS 
SHIFTING S OF THE EQUATOR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE 
TRADES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS THE 1033 MB N OF THE AREA 
SHIFTS W AND WEAKENS TO AROUND 1030 MB. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 24N130W TO 17N140W AND A LINE FROM 
30N127W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI. HIGHER SEAS OF 9-
10 FT DUE TO A NEW NW SWELL TRAIN ARE FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 
116W AND 126W BY FRI. WINDS ELSEWHERE SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 
LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. 

$$
AGUIRRE