000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101520 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED APR 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 09N88W TO 07N94W...THEN AS THE ITCZ TO 07N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER COLORADO WITH A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 28N114W. THE TROUGH MARKS A REGION WHERE STRONG POLAR JET MERGES WITH SUBTROPICAL JET. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N135W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS W OF ABOUT 112W. PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO RELAX AS A SURFACE LOW IN E MEXICO SHIFTS FURTHER E. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0815 UTC SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHRINKING NEAR 15N130W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL WEAKEN IN THE N HEMISPHERE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH THE ITCZ AXIS SHIFTING S OF THE EQUATOR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN E-NE TRADES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DESPITE THE SUBTOPICAL HIGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAINING A CENTRAL PRES AROUND 1030 MB THROUGH SAT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEA HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING NORTHERLY SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. A NEW AREA OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS W OF CALIFORNIA WILL SWEEP S OF 30N THU NIGHT WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT W OF N BAJA PENINSULA. $$ MUNDELL