000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100313
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC WED APR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N85W TO 05N91W. 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 07N105W TO 08N113W. IT RESUMES 
AT 07N118W TO 05N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER UPPER CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION OF THE U.S. WITH A 
TROUGH SW TO NEAR 26N119W. THE TROUGH MARKS A REGION WHERE THE 
UPPER NW FLOW MERGES WITH WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 
JET STREAM BRANCH THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 15N140W...AND 
EXTENDS ENE TO 22N120W...AND NE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. 

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE 
QUICKLY SHIFTING WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEEPENING AS IT 
LIFTS NE. STRONG SW-W WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM ARE 
ADVECTING BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ENE FROM THE TROPICS
...PRIMARILY DUE TO ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION...TOWARDS CENTRAL
MEXICO FROM 16N-22N.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB CENTERED N OF THE 
AREA AT 35N134W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS W OF 
ABOUT 112W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
WINDS JUST NE OF THE AREA. RESULTANT LARGE SEAS TO 16 FT 
GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE SPREADING TO S TO NEAR 28N BETWEEN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON 
INDICATED FRESH NE-E WINDS FROM ABOUT 07N TO 27N W OF 120W. 
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS FORECAST THE 1032 MB HIGH TO SHIFT W OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WHILE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY. WITH THE DEEP 
LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LIFTING NE AT THE SAME TIME...THIS 
WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRES GRADIENT JUST NE OF THE AREA TO SLACKEN. 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 116W FROM 05N TO 11N 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM THE ITCZ N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 
119W. THIS TROUGH ALSO LIES TO THE E OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH 
EMBEDDED IN THE SW TO W FLOW ALONG A POSITION FROM 06N126W TO 
17N128W.
 
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY 
WED MORNING...WITH SEA HEIGHTS FROM LARGE N-NW SWELL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDING AS WELL THROUGH FRI.

$$
AGUIRRE