000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC TUE APR 9 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N84W TO 6N89W. 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 06N100W TO 7N112W WHERE IT 
ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 07N114W TO 04N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 108W-116W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
118W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER UPPER CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION OF THE WESTERN U.S.
WITH A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 26N119W. THE TROUGH MARKS A REGION 
WHERE THE UPPER NW FLOW MERGES WITH WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED 
WITH A STRONG JET STREAM BRANCH THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 
15N140W...AND EXTENDS ENE TO 22N120W...AND NE ROUNDING THE 
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. 

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE 
QUICKLY SHIFTING WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEEPENING AS IT 
LIFTS NE. STRONG SW-W WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM ARE 
ADVECTING BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ENE FROM THE TROPICS
...PRIMARILY DUE TO ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION...TOWARDS CENTRAL
MEXICO FROM 16N-22N.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB CENTERED N OF THE 
AREA AT 35N134W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS W OF 
ABOUT 112W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
WINDS JUST NE OF THE AREA. RESULTANT LARGE SEAS TO 16 FT 
GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE SPREADING TO S TO NEAR 28N BETWEEN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON 
INDICATED FRESH NE-E WINDS FROM ABOUT 07N TO 27N W OF 120W. 
GLOBALE FORECAST MODELS FORECAST THE 1032 MB HIGH TO SHIFT W 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WHILE INTENSIYING SLIGHTLY. WITH THE 
DEEP LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LIFTING NE AT THE SAME 
TIME...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRES GRADIENT JUST NE OF THE AREA 
TO SLACKEN.  EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE BASIN BY WED MORNING...WITH SEA HEIGHTS FROM LARGE N-NW 
SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS WELL THROUGH FRI.

$$
AGUIRRE