000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 
09N84W TO 06N91W TO 06N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 08N110W WHERE
AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS OBSERVED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE
ITCZ RESUMES AT 03N115W AND CONTINUES W TO 00N137W WHERE IT
LOSES IDENTITY N OF THE EQUATOR. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG
CONVECTION...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...IS FLARING ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 05.5N78W AND ALSO ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N86W TO
06N92W TO 06N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ACCOMPANIES THE ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
06N102W TO 07N121W TO 06N134W.

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N...THEN
FURTHER INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT BRIEFLY TONIGHT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING 3 TO 6 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX EARLY TUE 
SUPPORTING W WINDS MOSTLY AT 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF 
LATE TUE CLOCKING WINDS TO THE NW INITIALLY AT 10 TO 15 KT N
OF 30N INTO TUE EVENING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25T LATE TUE NIGHT AND BUILDING SEAS FROM 3 TO 6 FT
IN THE LONGER FETCH WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT
WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WED AFTERNOON WITH THE
GRADIENT RELAXING WED NIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THU...AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20
KT LATE EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH
WED MORNING. EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WITH THE LATE
NIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ONLY AT 10 TO 15 KT FROM THU THROUGH
SAT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N140W TO 
12N106W. THE GRADIENT NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS
AT 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO ALONG 122W. LONG PERIOD NW AND N SWELL RESULTS IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT REACHING THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N
OF 25N...WHILE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE PENINSULA
TO THE S OF 25N. THE AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS E OF RIDGE WILL 
SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N E OF 124W ON TUE WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 TO 17 FT. BY WED THE ENHANCED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 
WILL AFFECT THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 131W...BUT
SEAS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED TO ONLY 9 TO 11 FT. NE TRADES SW THE
RIDGE ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 20N W 
OF 130W WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXING NE AND NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL. LONG PERIOD N AND NE AND NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING
S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF A LINE
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 03N140W. 

$$
NELSON