000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 
10N85W TO 06N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES W TO 05N116W... 
THEN WSW TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...IS
OBSERVED OVER AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
05.5N77W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
06.5N82W TO 05N99W TO 08N108W TO 04.5N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 03.5N134W TO 02N140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SUNRISE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WAS AT
MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO 15 KT TO 20 KT BY SUNSET
TODAY. NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT IS MIXING WITH
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. THE NE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE WITH THE AFFECTED AREA OF SEAS AT 7 TO 8 FT SHIFTING SW 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W
THIS EVENING...AND THEN COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT ON SUN. 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AT SUNRISE THU...AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20
KT LATE EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH
MON MORNING. EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WITH THE LATE
NIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ONLY AT 10 TO 15 KT FROM TUE THROUGH
FRI. 

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...W TO NW 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN 
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUN AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT ON MON.
THE WINDS WILL CLOCK TO THE NW EARLY TUE AND GRADUALLY 
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WED NIGHT. NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED ON THU AND 5 TO
10 KT ON FRI.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AT 30N135W AND IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE NW AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH AT 31N142W ON
SUN. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS AT 20
TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THIS AREA WILL INCREASE ON SUN AND MON WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL DRIVING SEAS HEIGHTS TO 8 TO 13 FT ON MON.
NE TRADES SW THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY FROM 15 TO 20
KT TO 20 TO 25 KT ON SUN ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 22N 
W OF 130W.

$$
NELSON