000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED APR 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N82W TO 05N90W TO 06N105W...THEN ITCZ 
TO 03N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 
125W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWS A 
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE 
SLIGHTLY DENSER AIR WILL BREACH THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
TONIGHT...REACHING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI...SETTING THE STAGE 
FOR A GALE EVENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH MODIFIES 
QUICKLY AND SHIFTS E...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SAT INTO SUN.

AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF...WINDS WILL INCREASE 
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING A MINOR GAP EVENT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT.

FARTHER W...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS DIGGING EASTWARD N OF 25N. 
THE TROUGH IS LIFTING NE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...DEPRIVING 
THE UPPER SUPPORT FROM A DISSIPATING AND STALLED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 30N126W TO 20N140W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND WILL ALLOW A 
BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG 28N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK STARTING TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 20N W OF 120W. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE FROM THE TRADE WINDS IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. 

NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA BY LATE FRI AS 
THE HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF THE AREA. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN