000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED APR 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 05N98W THEN ITCZ TO 02N107W TO 
04N125W TO 02N131W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 91W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG 104 CURRENTLY BRINGS DRY SUBSIDING
AIR MASS TO E PAC FROM 93W TO 106W.  LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM RIDING ON BACK OF RIDGE CREST THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BASIN ALONG
116W.  NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE WESTERN PART OF
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK...FOLLOWS ALONG 131W.  BLOCK MAY BE FORMING TOO
FAR NORTH TO IMPACT WITH SIGNIFICANT WEATHER S OF 30N WHERE FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-ZONAL...AT LEAST S OF 20N.  THIS PROVIDES
TROPICAL LATITUDES WITH STABLE CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION RESTRICTED
TO ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1021 MB AT 26N122W EFFECTIVELY STALLED APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  FRONT EXPECTED TO DIFFUSE AT PRESENT POSITION LATER TODAY.
HIGH PRES BEHIND COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY REINFORCES AND STRENGTHENS RIDGE
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AGAINST COASTAL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND 
AGAINST ITCZ IN THE SOUTH.  THIS INCREASES WINDS ALONG COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W TO A FRESH TO 
STRONG BREEZE.

COLD FRONT THROUGH SW GULF OF MEXICO FUNNELS STRONG N WINDS ACROSS 
CHIVELAS PASS IN MEXICO EXITING THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI
NIGHT AT NEAR GALE FORCE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. 

LONG PERIOD SW 9-11 FT SWELL LINGER S OF 20N W OF 110W.

...OUTLOOK...
VERY HEALTHY RIDGE WITH WELL ANCHORED HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB NEAR THE
NW CORNER OF BASIN COULD KEEP STABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE BASIN.  FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES AND NW FLOW ALONG BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

NEAR GALE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS 
GULF OF MEXICO WINDS VEER THE WINDS AWAY FROM CHIVELAS PASS SAT.  
$$
WALLY BARNES