000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
08N77W TO 03N101W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION
TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 05N126W 
TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...
VERIFIED BY LIGHTING DATA...IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA WITHIN 30 NM OF 05.5N77W...AND ALSO VERIFIED ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
05.5N82W TO 05N90W...AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05.5N128W TO 03N135W TO 03.5N140W.

...DISCUSSION... 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU EVENING...EXCEPT FOR LATE
NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE 
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU 
NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH FRI...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 
KT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS AREA
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 KT ON SAT AFTERNOON.   
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20
KT LATE EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH
WED MORNING. THEREAFTER...EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
WITH THE LATE NIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ONLY AT 10 TO 15 KT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH 
MID WEEK THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING W TO NW 5 TO 
10 KT WINDS THROUGH FRI.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AT 28N125W AND IS EXPECTED 
TO DRIFT N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AT 20 TO 25
KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N W OF 137W WITH THESE CONDITIONS 
SPREADING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N W OF 133W ON TUE IN 
ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTD MOVING INTO THE SAME 
AREA TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED. BY LATE TUE THE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX SUPPORTING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT. NW FLOW WILL 
INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N E OF 116W TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE 
EVENING THEN DIMINISH. NE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 04N TO 18N BETWEEN 114W AND 140W WITH 
SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

$$
NELSON