000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH 10N86W TO 04N95W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 02N103W TO 04N118W
TO 04N126W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM
84W TO 89W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD WELL ANCHORED AND STUBBORN MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EFFECTIVELY
FORCE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NE AND KEPT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM ENTERING
E PAC.  SECOND VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NOW AT 34N150W MOVE E ACROSS 
140W EARLY WED BUT IS EXPECTED TO RUN INTO MEET THE SAME FATE AS THE 
PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT MAY SHIFT NE AT A LOWER LONGITUDE.  CYCLONE 
FLATTENS RIDGE CREST AND WIND FLOW BECOMES BASICALLY ZONAL THU AND FRI
TILL STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDS UP SOUTHERN SECTION OF CYCLONE AND BRINGS
EXTRA ENERGY TO MIX WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED ALOFT LATE
IN FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.


...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER AT 28N122W HOLDS ITS ROUND UNDER THE APPROACH
OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS E PAC LATE TODAY AND IS 
DEFLECTED NE BY HIGH PRES RIDGE.  FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND BRUSH
NW CORNER OF BASIN...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE LATE WED.
 
LARGE SWELLS...ORIGINALLY GENERATED IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF GULFS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...HAVE PROPAGATED W AND NOW MIX WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL.  NE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS BASIN
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED E AND NW SWELL. 

...LOOKING AHEAD...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BRUSH NE CORNER OF BASIN AND 
INCREASE WINDS NEAR COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWARD LATER IN
THE WEEK, 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE
THU NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH FRI...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 30 KT LATE
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.   

$$
WALLY BARNES