000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311542 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN MAR 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH IS INDISCERNIBLE AT 1200 UTC. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N79W TO 06N87W TO 04N102W TO 01N121W TO 01N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 105W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE N OF AREA NEAR 36N130W CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WEAKEN...AND IS BECOMING ELONGATED NW TO SE. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SE AND IS SWEEPING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 29N ALONG 122W. MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING IS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THIS AREA SW TO ALONG 24N140W...WITH STABLE AND SUBSIDING AIR PREVAILING WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THIS MEANDERING TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING NE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING E-NE DIRECTLY BEHIND THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE...AND IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SECOND DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE SHIFTING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CENTERED NEAR 34N155W. THE FIRST AND EASTERN MOST CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E AND INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW OF THE U.S. THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE SECOND CYCLONE REORGANIZES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS E...MOVING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED. SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY MORE ZONAL...WITH A STRONG JET STREAKING EWD ACROSS HAWAII TO NEAR 20N140W THEN NE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH CORE SPEEDS TO 130 KT INDICATED BY CIMSS/NESDIS ANALYSIS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TO 110 KT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS S OF THE JET...FROM 11N124W ACROSS THE EQUATOR ALONG 120W AND CONTINUES WELL S THEN SW INTO THE SRN HEMISPHERE. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO ITS E...AIDING IN MAINTAINING ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF THIS AREA TO 105W. A BROAD EQUATORIAL RIDGE RESIDES W OF THIS FEATURE... CENTERED NEAR 04N156W AND IS MAINTAIN NWLY FLOW INTO THE W SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N128W WITH WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 14N107W. MODERATE BUT STRONGLY CONVERGENT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 130W...AND HAVE LED TO A DOUBLE ITCZ STRUCTURE IN THIS REGION...WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE N ITCZ DESCRIBED ABOVE. E OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE N-NW WINDS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT BOTH E AND W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...INCREASING SEAS TO 5-6 FT IN THESE RECENTLY TRANQUIL WATERS. SLOWLY FADING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BY THE EASTERN MOST CYCLONE ABOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA WATERS...WITH SEAS HAVING SUBSIDED TO 8 FT N OF 27.5N W OF 127W. SUFFICIENT WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE MODERATE TRADEWINDS BETWEEN 105W AND 130W ARE MIXING WITH NW AND SW SWELL TO MAINTAINS SEAS 8-10 FT THERE FROM 03N TO 12N. GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND CONTINUE TO PULSE TO AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH THIS PLUME EXTENDING DOWNWIND TO NEAR 10N90W THIS MORNING...AND SEAS 6-8 FT. THIS GAP WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED TRADEWINDS THERE WEAKEN. $$ STRIPLING