000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT MAR 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 04N77W TO 03N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N93W...THEN DIPS SW TO 02N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N106W TO 02N123W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N123W TO 10N127W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXCEPT FOR LATE NIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AT 10 KT THROUGH THU EVENING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 09N93W...WITH MAX SEAS OF 10 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER SUNRISE ON SUN WITH PULSES TO 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED LATE EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WITH THE LATE NIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ONLY AT 10 KT. GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ON SUN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. THE LARGE SWELLS GENERATED IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO HAVE MERGED COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 109W AND 131W ON SUN...WITH THE AREA SHIFTING W OF 120W ON MON. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF JUST N OF THE AREA AT 35N131W CONTINUES TO LIFT NE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 08N131 HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING DENSE UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITHIN 240 NM OF LINE FROM 14N140W TO 17N125W... THEN FANS OUT AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NW OLD MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 12N101W. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE FAR SE PORTION IS RETRACTING E...BUT DRY UPPER AIR IS STILL OBSERVED TO THE E OF 100W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BETWEEN 106W AND 127W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AT 28N119W AND IS BLOCKING THE FORWARD ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS...OR TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 34N133W. WESTERLY WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 129W AND 136W WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA... RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N W OF 125W. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX TONIGHT AND SAT WITH THE SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 7 FT ON SUN. A DEEPENING LOW W OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N W OF 137W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. $$ NELSON