000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N84W TO 04N89W THEN ITCZ
TO 05N105W TO 03N120W TO 05N130W TO 01N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 
132W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE N OF AREA AT 35N133W HAS SHIFTED NE DRAGGING
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRES 1004 MB AND PULLING ITS SUPPORT OUT OF
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 32N126W TO 22N140W.  ATTENDANT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CYCLONE TO 20N140W MAINTAINS SUBSIDING
DRY AIR MASS ALOFT W OF FRONT.  FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES BY
LATE SUN.  JET CORE WITH 110 KT JUST SE OF TROUGH ADVECTS 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF FRONT AND DIRECTED
TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO.

FAIRLY SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
00N124W SPLIT RIDGE CREST RUNNING FROM 32N110W TO 10N122W FROM 
SOUTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER VENEZUELA.  TROUGH EXTEND DRY SWATH SE
OF AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME.   

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE E-NE WINDS EXTEND AS FAR AS
94W TODAY BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND SUN AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SUN AS SW N ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES E
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

SUBSIDING SWELLS GENERATED DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
SLOWLY PROPAGATE W AND MERGE WITH THOSE PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS GALE
EVENT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...NW SWELLS 
FROM ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT EXTEND AREA COVERAGE BY 8-9 FT
HEIGHTS.    

WELL ANCHORED HIGH PRES CENTER 1019 MB AT 25N117W BLOCKS
EASTWARD ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT AND KEEPS STABLE CONDITIONS IN
SPITE OF LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.

...OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT...STRONGER THAN THE PRESENT ONE...APPROACHES
NW CORNER OF BASIN LATE MON BUT IS ALSO DEFLECTED NE AND BLOCKED
FROM GOING FURTHER E BY REINFORCED RIDGE ALONG 125W.  NE TRADES
BETWEEN RIDGE AND ITCZ...08N TO 18N W OF 120W...INCREASE AS 
RIDGE TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT.

$$
WALLY BARNES