000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI MAR 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW TO 02N120W TO 02N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N86W TO 05N100W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N122W TO 02N133W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT EARLY TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING AS FAR W AS 08.5N92W...WITH MAX SEAS OF 11 FT NEAR 10N89W. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX TONIGHT THROUGH SUN WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST BY SUN EVENING. HOWEVER..PULSES AT 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE EACH NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING SAT...THEN DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. THE LARGE SWELLS GENERATED IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO HAVE MERGED COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 115W...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND AFFECT THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W ON SAT...FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 127W ON SUN...AND FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 118W AND 140W ON MON WHEN THESE E SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF JUST N OF THE AREA AT 34N134W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED AT 09N117W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING DENSE UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITHIN 360 NM OF LINE FROM 14N140W TO 24N122W. THE DENSE MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES E ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN OLD MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED S OF 13N ALONG ROUGHLY 108W...AND CONTINUES TO SEPARATE THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE AT 09N117W WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W AND 134W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE DISSIPATING CLUSTERS AS THE UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 104W AND 140W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE TROPICS E OF 100W...WITH WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BETWEEN 86W AND 102W. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AT 30N118W AND IS BLOCKING THE FORWARD ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS...OR TROUGHS...ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 34N134W. WESTERLY WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W... WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA... RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 16 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX TONIGHT AND SAT WITH THE SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 10 FT BY LATE SAT AND 6 TO 7 FT ON SUN. $$ NELSON